New Cold world war

18/09/2007 Written by Boris Mutina

One thing is clear: world is about to change. What can we expect? New lead­ers of two big coun­tries will be elected. In case of new US pres­i­dent it is now clear, that next pres­i­dent will be from democ­rats. And in Rus­sia, well, whole land is wait­ing for a sig­nal from Mr. Putin.

In U.S. the main dis­cus­sion is now about the war in Iraq (and a bit in shadow remains still unfin­ished bat­tle in Afghanistan). Every observer can see two main streams, from which one says, that U.S. troops should return imme­di­ately from their for­eign mis­sions, the other says, that the world is still in war with ter­ror and that it is wrong to step back now. But as in every coun­try, also in U.S. there are many groups, that are inter­ested on results of the pres­i­den­tal elec­tions and many that will profit from it.

In case of war in Iraq, it is clear, and also Alan Greenspan — eco­nomic mas­ter­mind — under­lined the fact, that this is more or less about oil. Reserves and price of oil have strong influ­ence on world econ­omy and the impact will be more cru­cial, when in next decades the reserves will be smaller, so we can expect ris­ing prices. But the oil isn’t the only rea­son. If you look on the map, you will see, that posi­tion of Iraq and Afgan­istan is one of most strate­gic in this area, and US, even they have their bases in the region, it is still not enough to cover their interests.

Devel­op­ment in this area is forced by U.S. to be pro-​US ori­ented. For those, who are miss­ing the point, why, just please take again look on the map of the world. U.S. are try­ing not only sup­port Israel in this region (even it’s posi­tion is also strate­gic, cov­er­ing Mid­dle East and north of Africa), they want to estab­lish eco­nomic and mil­i­tary con­tacts in order to help US econ­omy to grow and not loose the track with their oposites — China and Rus­sia.

If you look into his­tory, you can see, that U.S. were try­ing to estab­lish their con­tacts in the coun­tries near their oposites. Korea and Viet­nam were unsuc­cess­ful mis­sions, but after fall of Iron wall, U.S. had good posi­tion in for­mer East Block coun­tries as Poland and Czech repub­lic. U.S. plans to build rocket base and radar facil­ity in these coun­tries were also rea­son, why US — Russ­ian rela­tion­ships are more colder than in pre­vi­ous years. Plac­ing Big Ear in Czech repub­lic is cov­ered by state­ment, that US needs it to fight and observe ter­ror­ism bet­ter than now, but to be hon­est: really? Russ­ian offers to build such facil­i­ties together were not accepted, even, few years ago Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush declared, that they can under­stand each other, because they have the same ene­mies: ter­ror­ists. Not any­more?

In Rus­sia, sit­u­a­tion is quite dif­fer­ent, because, there isn’t such big dis­cus­sion about Mr. Putin’s suc­ces­sor as we are wit­nessed in U.S.. More than opo­si­tion pol­i­tics, cit­i­zens are wait­ing for Mr. Putin’s state­ment, who should benext Russ­ian pres­i­dent. Choos­ing Mr. Zubkov to be new prime min­is­ter might indi­cate his choice. If he will can­di­date for pres­i­dent, is still not clear, but we should wait for his next steps to see, if he can win some points in the bat­tle for Krem­lin. Any­way, in Rus­sia the opo­si­tion against Mr. Putin is not so strong. Maybe due his pre­vi­ous skills in secret ser­vice many peo­ple are scared to talk openly. Then the pic­ture looks like that: killed jour­nal­ist, arested com­pany boss or rich man acused from prepa­ra­tion of plot, secret agent acus­ing pres­i­dent of spy game dies…

In last weeks another move from Krem­lin under­lined the fact, that there is still strug­gling for power. Russ­ian strate­gic bombers are again in the skies — some­thing that has been per­formed dur­ing cold war. Also new test of stongest con­ven­tional bomb is one of actions, that might indi­cate that Krem­lin leader is still pow­er­ful.

Where is peace nowa­days? Iran is talk­ing about war. Israel air­planes vio­lated Syr­ian air­space. Osama bin Laden released new tape. After Swedish news­pa­per Ner­ikes Alle­handa pub­lished another car­toon of Prophet Mohammed, reward is offered by al-​Qaeda on head of the the car­toon­ist. Ger­many dis­cov­ered new ter­ror­ist plot to be pre­pared…

So, how the world is about to change? Are we mov­ing again into intol­er­ance, vio­lence, war?